The Ukrainian – Russian Conflict, On the Brink of War
As the world holds its breath, what do the weeks and months ahead look like for Vladimir Putin as he makes his next move in the deeply concerning next Hunger Games, as Russian troops surround Ukraine. Does Mr Putin see an invasion of Ukraine as the ultimate test to Western promises for protection of Europe, or is he merely playing mind games to play the West into his hands?
Brief History
The Russian – Ukrainian conflict started in early 2014 and has burst into pockets of violence and skirmishes, most notably in 2021. The crisis emerged after a series of protests in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev against then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to reject a deal for enhanced economic integration with the European Union (EU), leading to President Yanukovych fleeing the country after protests escalated.
Photo Credit: Britannica
Following this, Russian troops moved into the contested Ukrainian region of Crimea, leading to a disputed local referendum with its citizens, which saw Russia formally annex Crimea from Ukraine. In July 2014, a Malaysian Airlines flight was shot down over Ukrainian airspace, where it was later confirmed to be because of a Russian built surface-to-air missile system. This led to the United States and EU becoming involved in the conflict, with France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine attempting to deescalate the situation through the Minsk Accords.
In 2016, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) deployed troops across Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland to deter Russian aggression and the risk of a possible invasion. Now in 2022, Russia has moved nearly 100,000 troops to multiple regions along the Ukrainian border, with many other military actives taking place at sea, including 140 ships and support vessels, 60 aircraft and a further 10,000 personnel.
On the Brink of War
Photo Credit: BBC
What happens next is down for Russia to play. We could see a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, with the horrific images of Russian troops stationed at the Verkhovna Rada building (Ukrainian Parliament) after storming the capital in Kiev. We could see a small-scale war over energy and gas, with Russia providing one-third of gas energy to Europe through its pipelines. Russia could also chip away at Ukrainian territory, further annexing around Crimea and keeping tensions with the West on the brink of full-scale war.
The coming weeks will paint the full picture of Mr Putin’s plans, however, Ukrainian allies in the West are moving to place economic sanctions on Russia, whilst calling for diplomatic solutions, with top US general, Mark Milley, describing a war with Russia as “horrific for both sides”, as the Pentagon places around 8,500 troops on standby for possible deployment to Europian and NATO countries. For now, we watch and wait, in a game of chess that could lead to violence and chaos beyond even the Cold-War imaginations of nuclear disaster.